What is Kalshi?

Kalshi has defined a new category: prediction markets. Kalshi allows people to trade on the outcome of any events and turn any question about the future into a financial asset. Kalshi fought for years and legalized prediction markets in the US for the first time in history, is currently the fastest growing financial market in America, and has thousands of markets across politics, economics, financials, weather, tech, AI, culture and more.

We believe prediction markets have the potential to be the largest financial market because they turn anything into a financial position.

• Our vision: well… build the largest financial market on the planet.

• Our mission: bring more truth to the world through the power of markets.

Our culture is simple: we hire really talented people, work really hard, and enjoy the climb. We are looking for ambitious and exceptional people to join our (relatively small) team to help us build the next generation of financial markets.

Role Roadmap

Kalshi is seeking a Senior Data Scientist to own and define the company’s Customer Lifetime Value (LTV) framework as a core strategic input to growth and product decisions. This individual will ensure LTV reflects durable, structural drivers of customer value - not short-term seasonality or promotional noise.

They will serve as Kalshi’s authority on long-term value, building models that generalize across geographies and regulatory environments, and translating nuanced analysis into clear guidance for leadership as the company scales.

What You'll Do

• Design LTV models that capture structural—not just seasonal—value

  • Separate long-term signal from short-term promotions and seasonality

  • Model retention and monetization dynamics that persist across cycles

  • Stress-test models across cohorts launched in different macro and regulatory regimes

  Incorporate high-granularity features

  • Build user- and cohort-level models that account for:

    • Geography (e.g., zip code, DMA, state-level effects)

    • Regulatory or market-specific constraints

    • Behavioral and product-usage signals

  • Explicitly model heterogeneity rather than relying on global averages

  Ensure durability and generalization

  • Validate models across multiple years, product launches, and seasonal cycles

  • Monitor stability, drift, and cohort aging effects

  • Revisit assumptions as the business and user base evolve

  Operationalize nuanced LTV

  • Make LTV actionable at different resolutions (user, cohort, geo, channel)

  • Partner with Growth to avoid overfitting CAC decisions to short-term spikes

  • Align with Finance on long-range forecasting assumptions

  Be the voice of judgment

  • Push back against simplistic or purely seasonal interpretations of value

  • Clearly communicate uncertainty, confidence intervals, and limitations

  • Prevent misuse of early-cohort or promotion-inflated signals

What You Bring

• 5–8+ years of experience as a Data Scientist in a consumer marketplace with meaningful seasonality

• Proven ownership of an LTV model that:

  • Lived in production for multiple years

  • Survived multiple seasonal cycles

  • Informed real budget, growth, or product decisions

• Deep experience with:

  • Cohort-based modeling and survival analysis

  • Feature-rich segmentation (geo, behavior, product mix)

  • De-biasing early lifecycle and promotion-heavy data

• Strong SQL and Python (or R); comfortable working with large-scale feature pipelines

• Demonstrated ability to explain why a model generalizes—not just that it performs

NYC Pay Transparency Disclosure

Salary Range: $200,000 to $250,000 annually, plus equity and benefits.

This range reflects current market data for this role. Kalshi has minimal hierarchy and broad variance in experience levels within each title; if your compensation expectations exceed this range, we encourage you to reach out — we’re always happy to discuss.

Our Culture

Meritocracy is at our core, and we value people who take ownership and figure (usually hard) things out. We dream big. We love our craft deeply and are proud of what we put out in the world. We are committed to our vision of building something big… but also useful: a product that brings more truth through the power of markets.

Kalshians are Kalshi’s most important asset: we pick Kalshians carefully, so we trust them fully on day 1.

Commitment to Equal Opportunity

Kalshi is committed to creating a culture of inclusion and belonging, and we are proud to be an equal opportunity employer. We believe it is our collective responsibility to uphold these values and encourage candidates from all backgrounds to join us in our mission. All qualified applicants will be treated with respect and receive equal consideration for employment without regard to race, color, creed, religion, sex, gender identity, sexual orientation, national origin, disability, uniform service, veteran status, age, or any other protected characteristic per federal, state, or local law. If you are passionate about what you do and want to use your talents to support our mission and values, we’d love to hear from you.